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© 1990 Oxford University Press

research-article

Drop-out and Newcomer Bias in a Community Cardiovascular Follow-up Study

P L JOOSTE, D YACH, H J STEENKAMP, J L BOTHA* and J E ROSSOUW**

Research Institute for Nutritional Diseases and Centre for Epidemiological Research in Southern Africa, South African Medical Research Council PO Box 70, Tygerberg 7505, South Africa.

Jooste P L (Research Institute for Nutritional Diseases and Centre for Epidemiological Research in Southern Africa, South African Medical Research Council, PO Box 70, Tygerberg 7505, South Africa) Yach D, Steenkamp H J, Botha J L and Rossouw J E. Drop-out and newcomer bias in a community cardiovascular follow-up study. International Journal of Epidemiology 1990; 19: 284–289.

Bias resulting from a loss of baseline subjects at follow-up (drop-out), and newcomer bias resulting from subjects entering the study at the follow-up stage, were investigated in a three-community coronary risk factor follow-up study. The study consisted of a cross-sectional baseline study on 7188 participants aged 15 to 64 years, a four-year intervention period and a follow-up cross-sectional study in the same communities on 6283 participants aged 19 to 68 years. The overall non-response rate of 45% in men and 42% in women varied from 30 to 79% in the various age and sex groups, with the biggest drop-out rate occurring in the youngest age group of 15 to 24 years. At baseline drop-outs were more likely to have lower educational qualifications than those who participated in both the baseline and follow-up studies (stayers) and included significantly more smokers than non-smokers. Coronary risk factors of newcomers were not different from that of the stayers at follow-up except for slightly, but not significantly, higher smoking rates in newcomers. These findings suggest that drop-out and newcomer bias need to be assessed and its effect studied before final evaluation of data in community follow-up studies.

Revised 1 October 1989


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