International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 18, S210-S215, Copyright © 1989 by International Epidemiological Association
H Blackburn
Cardiovascular disease risk factor and mortality data collected since the
1978 Conference on the Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality were
reviewed. Risk factor and disease trends were generally parallel and
compatible with current hypotheses of cause and prevention. A few
discrepancies between risk factors and disease change were noted and
discussed. Models were presented for estimating effects of risk factor and
medical care changes on disease trends. Their usefulness and limitations
were considered. An ongoing need was elaborated for systematic and
innovative surveillance research to expand and improve the capability to
measure, explain, and predict disease trends. Rational public health policy
depends on competent and sustained surveillance.
ARTICLES
Trends and determinants of CHD mortality: changes in risk factors and their effects
Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
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