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© 1981 Oxford University Press

research-article

A Dynamic Analysis of Chronic Disease Development: A Study of Sex Specific Changes in Coronary Heart Disease Incidence and Risk Factors in Framingham

MAX A WOODBURY*, KENNETH G MANTON** and ERIC STALLARD**

*Community and Family Medicine and Computer Science, Duke University Box 4732, Duke Station, Durham, North Carolina 27706, USA
**Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University Durham, North Carolina 27706, USA

Woodbury MA (Community and Family Medicine and Computer Science, Duke University, Box 4732, Duke Station, Durham, North Carolina 27706, USA), Manton KG and Stallard E. A dynamic analysis of chronic disease development: a study of sex specific changes in coronary heart disease incidence and risk factors in Framingham. International Journal of Epidemiology 1981, 10: 355–366.

An analysis of sex differentials In the dynamics of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Framingham study is conducted using a methodology designed specifically for the analysis of longitudinal data. The methodology is based on an explicit model of the disease process which aids in the interpretation of the longitudinal results. This methodology permits the analysis of risk variable changes over time to be conducted independently of the analysis of the relation of risk variable values to CHD risk. The independent analyses afford a complete utilisation of information from longitudinal studies of chronic disease risk and produce insights into the dynamics of chronic disease development not available by other analytic strategies. The results of this analysis are compared with results obtained from a similarly structured multiple logistic analysis - a comparison which illustrates some of the technical and conceptual deficiencies of the often employed multiple logistic analysis when applied to longitudinal data.

Received 19 November 1980


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